A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
